Monday, 2 November 2009

The Grand Prediction - it is catching on

I take it that most of you who follows my musings and rants have read my grand list of predictions for coming political history of the UK Well they are catching on. Here is a comment from Benedict Brogan's blog:

I hope you are right about Cameron, but I can’t make myself believe it. Cameron thinks he will be able to dodge the EU question forever because he believes at heart that big, centralising government (ie the EU) is such a good thing that no one could possibly disagree. The best hope for conservative values is that UKIP draw enough votes to deny Cameron the keys to number 10. We suffer five more years of Brown, but we will have the same policies whoever wins so that is no loss. As a result of his defeat Cameron will lose the leadership of his party and probably defect to his natural home in the Labour party, taking the Cameroons with him. Traditional Conservatives and UKIP will join forces, perhaps calling themselves Conservatives, perhaps not. The EU sceptic/small government party that emerges will go into 2015 (because Brown or his replacement will hang on until the last possible moment) ready to fight and win a victory that will actually change something. Given the mess they will inherit they will be vilified for a generation, as Thatcher is, and for the same reason – the left prefer to blame the doctor for administering strong medicine rather than the disease of socialism itself.

I actually wrote to Hague suggesting the plan you outline in your final paragrtaph, but never received a reply.

As William Rees-Mogg has it
Historically, Britain has repeatedly wrecked European empires; they defeated Spain in the 16th century, royalist France in the 17th and 18th, and Napoleon in the early 19th. Britain outside Europe might again become a factor of division inside Europe.

Not to mention the Germans in WW1 and the Germans in WW2. I think we are heading that way again. It might be pertinent to add an 'if Cameron does X' - Cameron will not be the person who takes Britain out of the EU. 'Simples'

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