Thursday, 12 August 2010

Not a revolutionary prospect but close

You read it here first, a long time ago actually, but the next election will be the election of the so called "fringe". Only difference of course is that the fringe is not longer the perpetrators of the right or the left, they will be the flag-bearers of the left and the right. Why? Because no other political parties do; they have no colours to nail to the mast and no defining streak which sets them apart from the other in the majestic political landscape (notice the sarcastic hyperbole), they are to all intents and purposes 'centre'. Not 'centre-right' or 'centre-left' but bang, slap, middle of the bar, is where most mainstream political parties have set up camp today, and guess what, I reckon that voters will realise this too a much larger extent once the next election creeps closer. Consider why:

Have we had reduced immigration? No
Have we repatriated power from Brussels? No
Is the defence budget being slashed in the middle of a war? Yes
Can gypsies still set up camp wherever they want? Yes
Is the Human Rights Act going away? No
Is health and safety madness still prevalent? Yes
Is political correctness madness still prevalent? Yes
Are the trains and bus-services still too expensive? Yes
Is Britain still being sold off; lock stock and barrel? Yes
Are the pubs still dying? Yes
Is religious insensitivity to every single fucking thing, still clogging the news? Yes
Is there still too much red-tape? Yes
Are the righteous still preaching 24-7 how we should live our lives? Yes
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Now consider why nothing has happened with these rather large issues, it has to with political ideology or maybe it just has to do with vested interests - personally I think it has to with principles or lack thereof rather:

New Labour: Centre-left
Conservatives: Centre-right
Liberal Democrats: Centre-left
The Green Party: useless and pointless
BNP: Left
UKIP: Right
SNP: Centre-left

Now this is what I think is going to happen come the next election. People who at this election were on the verge of not voting for either LibDems, the Tories or Labour wont be on that note again. This time it is abundantly clear that all of their parties have moved away from their traditional ground and into the centre where, as this post so fragrantly demonstrates, everyone hates them particularly those us with a very firm set of principles, and that pretty much entails the entire blogosphere.

The Tories will most likely loose a lot of votes to UKIP because after 13 years in opposition and perhaps two or three in government it is as clear as daylight that they do not espouse right-wing policies. A lot of working class voters will probably shift to the BNP because of 13 years in government they were completely ignored and their two or three in opposition was an abject failure and a complete waste of everyone's time, because they are trying to defend the most abysmal mandate period in British political history. They have not yet succeeded in that goal and if anything it will turn into a pyrrhic victory if they do, but then the party at large will probably disappear as well. Here comes the interesting part; a lot of LibDem voters wont know what to do with themselves. They are at face value left leaning people who were not completely convinced by Labour but they have also come to realise that neither their party nor their most obvious successor, Labour, are going to serve as a reasonable substitute for their vote. Who they go for instead is anyone's guess but probably some really weird party like Socialist Alternative or Trade Unionist & Socialist.

And such is my thesis (and has been for about 1.5 years now, remember you read it here first); The election that really counts was not the one past, but the one we are about to have sometime in the next 4 years.

5 comments:

Witterings From Witney said...

Interesting thesis 13th, however as I have commented before - only if the 'fringe' parties get their acts together and are able to overcome the lack of media reporting of them, something the Lib/Lab/Con seem to have a cast iron grip on.

13th Spitfire said...

You do make a very valid argument there, but I think that because nature abhors a vacuum (in politics as well as in physics) someone has to fill the shoes of the right and the left and as such other parties must give ground.

Anonymous said...

But i've always voted labour!?

etc

Anonymous said...

I think the British public are just 'king stupid. Can't wait for the civil war to start....

neilreddin said...

That UKIP may gain support is quite likely with them (and not LibDems) being the obvious home now for disaffected Tories wanting to mete out a kicking at the ballot box.

However, if (and it's only an "if") AV comes in, then that could help the Conservatives, where protesting Tories use the 1st preference for UKIP but give the 2nd to Conservatives to avoid a worse outcome. So, having it both ways.