Wednesday, 10 March 2010

The General Election, the outcomes

The general election has three possible outcomes:
  1. The Conservative Party will win with a workable majority.
  2. The Labour Party will win with a workable majority.
  3. There is a hung parliament.
Nr 3 is of importance here because it is by far the most interesting one. This country does not do hung parliament as does the continent. They just break down completely. Some might argue that we had a coalition government during WWII, and we did but the keywords you are missing are in those two 'W's. There was a World War going on, not cooperating means loosing, it is as simple as that. Hence that is a completely moot argument because that was an extraordinary situation handled by an extraordinary government.

Further, Nr 3 is interesting because it presents some very curious consequences. If there is a hung parliament there will almost certainly be a leadership election in either party. Simply because either has failed in gaining a workable majority in the Commons. What is also certain is that there will be another general election within months to sort out the mess that currently inhibits the great halls of Westminster.

This is interesting particularly for real conservatives (with a small 'c') like myself. There is the real possibility that a real conservative takes the helm of the Conservative Party and delivers a manifesto that us conservatives can relate to. I think it is no a secret that most of us are leaving in droves to parties like UKIP and UKLP (scaremongering rarely works such as "a vote for any party but the Conservative Party is a vote for Labour" - bollocks to that). Whilst I see no light in the end of the tunnel with Mr. Cameron there is certainly enough brains and talent in the Conservative party, to produce a leader worthy of the helmsmanship. I am not going to insult the reader's intelligence by listing those people for he or she is most likely more knowledgeable than myself.

We have not had a lot of hung parliaments (for reasons explained above). The most recent elected hung parliament in the UK was that which followed the February 1974 general election, which lasted until the October election that year. Prior to that the last had been following the election of 1929. Hung parliaments can also arise when slim government majorities are eroded by by-election defeats and defection of Members of Parliament to opposition parties. This happened in 1996 to the Conservative government of John Major (1990-97) and in 1978 to the Labour government of James Callaghan (later Lord Callaghan of Cardiff) (1976-79). You can clearly see thus, that the track record is not good for that type of governing in the UK.

And finally, as always, a real conservative would have Britain tell the EU to Foxtrot Oscar.


Tony_E said...

I'm not sure that I agree, apart from the 'Foxtrot Oscar' bit to the EU!

Cameron desperately needs to secure a working majority, but the majority of voters in this country are now 'soft socialists', i.e. they are paid by the government in one form or another. Add to that a very hostile media and it is easy to understand the 'Conservative election strategy' of not frightening the horses.

Add to that the prospect of all out war with the unions, you can understand the point of walking softly until power is won, and then wielding a big legislative stick.

If Cameron tuns out not to have the right instincts once in office, then sure, defect to UKIP and I will probably join you, but by that stage we will have nothing to lose as the currency will be trashed and the economy in irrepairable ruins.

However, if the Conservatives don't win this time, that is GUARANTEED to happen and very quickly.

UKIP's time will and should come, but only if the Conservatives fail in office.

13th Spitfire said...

That is an interesting point of view. I agree with you very much on the part on the 'soft socialists' certainly, what I wonder though are there enough of them to counterweigh the conservative people in this country? Perhaps, and I imagine, that is what Cameron's mind is on right now.

Very good comment though, I welcome it.

thespecialone said...

I do wonder about the voting public. The public in general, those that never read blogs or online postings, will have been brow beaten into accepting political correctness and 'soft socialism'. Younger voters will dont know what it was like in 1979 when Labour were last booted from power. Then it was 'hard socialists'. Look how biased the BBC is and what a huge audience they get. Look at the whole week they hammered him whilst hardly mentioning Lord Paul. Ok, so many people dont really give a stuff but the point is is that people really do believe the BBC.

13th Spitfire said...

yeah mate, I know, in that sense the Tories must win or the socialists do. I am just finding it so hard to accept their centrist stance, I cannot relate to it at all.

Antisthenes said...

The EU has a lot to offer; Germany is great on wealth creation, France is great on health and deterring would be immigrants, Holland is great on education, Spain is great for sunshine and shipping off our undesirables, Italy is good for scandal, the eastern block countries are good for cheap labour, The Irish are good for Guinness and a butt for jokes, the Scandinavians are good for common sense and prizes. They all drive on the right hand side and are crap drivers so we can be smug about that. Brussels is the fun capital of the world. We can get rid of our political loonies to the European parliament or the commission . Downside we can no longer have cheap holidays on the continent because we have not joined the euro but don't worry we will eventually. Upside is we can give all our immigrants legal or otherwise British passports make their life hell so that they will bugger off to the mainland who will be unable to refuse them entry. So why this Foxtrot Oscar to the EU.

Antisthenes said...

Ooops wrong blog